The whole South American continent has been selected as test area under
the CERESIS Regional Centre. Two main initiatives are under completion
or implementation in the GSHAP framework:
i. CERESIS completes in 1995-96 the new seismic hazard assessment for
the whole continent, as part of the four-part seismic hazard mapping of
Central and Southern America led by PAIGH; the new map is based on an updated
earthquake catalogue extending the 1981 SISRA catalogue to 1991 and on
a new regional seismic source zonation.
ii. Five Andean countries (Bolivia to Venezuela; Chile is expected
to join later) and four European countries cooperate in the PILOTO program,
launched under GSHAP and sponsored by the European Community, to produce
comparative maps of seismic hazard assessment for the Andean region.
GSHAP initiatives held in South America include the participation in
the Regional Seismological Assembly in Brasilia (8/94), the PILOTO coordination
meeting in Bogota (10/95), the participation in the UNESCO-GFZ International
Training Course on Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Costarica
(10/95). Planned activities include a technical workshop in Ecuador (7/96),
a regional seismic hazard assessment exercise (spring 97) and the organization
of a Training Course in Paleoseismology and Active Faulting jointly
with ILP (winter 97).
By 1997 two regional seismic hazard maps will be available: the CERESIS
map for the whole continent and the PILOTO map for the Andean countries,
complemented by regional earthquake catalogues and seismic source zonations.
A network of national and regional programs in seismic hazard assessment
covers Canada, the US, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbeans:
* the new provisional US map has been released in the fall 1995, for
implementation in the 1996 five-year upgrade of the national building code;
* Canada and Mexico have also recently revised their national hazard
maps;
* PAIGH completes in 1995-96 its four-part seismic hazard assessment
of Central-South America, producing maps for Mexico, Central America South
of Mexico, the Caribbeans and South America;
* cooperative and bilateral programs are active in different areas
of Central America under support of agencies from North America and Europe
(Norway, European Community).
In this framework the role of GSHAP has been to promote inter-program
coordination at continental scale and to connect activities in Central-Northern
America with other regions; for example, PAIGH has adopted the GSHAP standards
of uniform magnitude and is now considering an extension of the program
to produce a unified map for the whole Central-South America.
A multinational group led by GSC, USGS and UNAM, will produce by 1997
a unified seismic hazard map of North-America under GSHAP, joining the
existing national and regional source zonings.
A very active region in the GSHAP framework, with test-areas, Regional
Centres, international programs and agencies focussing on seismic hazard
assessment with different degrees of advancement.
* The GSHAP implementation in Central-Northern Europe is coordinated
by the GFZ Regional Centre in Potsdam.
* The GSHAP Regional Centre for the Mediterranean, the CNCPRST of Rabat,
has been named at the end of 1995 the Centre EuroMediterraneen d'Evaluation
et de Prevention du Risque Sismique or Seismic Hazard Assessment (CEPRIS)
under the Open Partial Agreement on Natural Disasters of the European Council,
with the mandate of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western
Mediterranean areas.
* The GSHAP Regional Centres for Northern Eurasia, the JIPE of Moscow,
and for the Middle East, the IIEES of Tehran, have joined efforts in the
Caucasus test area.
* The GSHAP Coordinating Centre, the ING of Rome, mantains a role of
promotion and coordination of activities in the Mediterranean, and will
lead the 5-year UNESCO/IGCP program Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard
Assessment of the Mediterranean (1996-2000).
* The European Seismological Commission has played an active role in
ensuring the overall coordination needed for the GSHAP implementation in
the whole European-Mediterranean.
As a result of these efforts, a network of programs and independent
test-areas for seismic hazard assessment has been set up under GSHAP or
by other agencies:
i. Central-Northern Europe: following a planning meeting held
in Potsdam (7/93) and a workshop in De Bilt (12/94), the regional seismic
catalogue is under completion for NW Europe; the catalogue for NE Europe
and the seismic hazard zonation for the whole region will be completed
by 1997; the next meeting will take place in occasion of the 25th ESC Assembly
in Reykjavik (9/96).
ii. DACH: as part of the Central-Northern European area conducted
by GFZ, a unified hazard assessment for the German speaking countries has
now been produced.
iii. Ibero-Maghreb: the reactivation of the former ESC program
has been planned during a workshop in Granada (5/94) and will be conducted
under the coordination of the EC/OPA CEPRIS of Rabat with a 5-year timescale,
expanded to the whole Western Mediterranean; a general planning meeting
is planned in Rabat (fall 96).
iv. ADRIA: this program includes all countries bordering on
the Adriatic Sea and is coordinated by the OGS of Trieste; workshops have
been held in Trieste (7/94), Athens (9/95) and Ljubliana (10/95); preliminary
seismic zoning maps and earthquake catalogue have been compiled.
v. RELEMR: UNESCO and USGS have launched the program Reduction
of Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, which is
also expected to produce regional seismic hazard maps covering from Turkey
to the Red Sea; an initial meeting was held in Cairo (10/93) and a second
planning meeting in Paris (5/95).
vi. CAUCAS: the Test Area for Seismic Hazard Assessment in
the Caucasus has been proposed by GSHAP and jointly supported by IASPEI,
and includes the seismological institutions from the Caucasian republics,
Russia, Turkey and Iran; workshops have been held in Tehran (1/93), Moscow
(9/93), Ashgabad (10/94), Tehran (5/95); inter-regional working groups
on the main steps of seismic hazard assessment have been formed, with scheduled
activities and workshops for 1996-97; preliminary earthquake catalogue
and seismic zoning have been produced; the CAUCAS activities are now supported
by INTAS under contract 94-1644; the main 1996 event will be the NATO-ARW
Historical and prehistorical earthquakes in the Caucasus to be held
in Armenia (7/96).
vii. SESAME: starting in 1996, the 5-year UNESCO/IGCP program
Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Mediterranean
will integrate the regional databases and products in a unified seismic
hazard assessment for the whole basin; the first meetings are planned in
Rome (6/96) and Reykjavik (9/96).
viii. BEECD: the program A basic european earthquake catalogue
and database for the evaluation of long-term seismicity and seismic hazard
is supported by the European Community under contract 94-0479 and coordinated
by IRRS of Milan, in coordination with the GSHAP activities listed above.
The forthcoming 25th ESC Annual Assembly (Reykjavik, 9/96) and the
29th IASPEI General Assembly (Thessaloniki, 8/97), will include special
GSHAP sessions, providing the occasion to review and integrate the listed
programs and test areas.
Activities are proceeding under two integrated multi-national initiatives:
i. Following a regional planning meeting in Nairobi (11/93), the Regional
Centre at the University of Nairobi has collected national seismic catalogues
and compiled a regional catalogue and a seismic hazard zonation following
a historical probabilistic approach.
ii. the Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Seismological Working
Group produces regional seismic bulletins with support from Norway,
Sweden and IASPEI and recently joined efforts with GSHAP, holding joint
workshops in Entebbe (8/94), Addis Abeba (1/95) and Bulawayo (2/96); preliminary
earthquake catalogue and hazard mapping for the Rift area have been produced,
including site-specific hazard assessments for large cities along the Rift.
These two initiatives will be unified in 1997 with the UNESCO/GFZ International
Training Course in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment (Nairobi,
9/97), where the final products for the test area will be presented.
Three main initiatives are active in this vast area.
Northern Eurasia. The GSHAP Regional Centre in Moscow, JIPE,
is coordinating the seismic hazard mapping for the whole territory of the
former USSR. This five-year program, initiated before the FSU break-up
and interrupted during the period of more intense political turmoil, is
now proceeding with the compilation of catalogue and the assessment of
hazard, using for the first time a probabilistic approach. Technical workshops
are held routinely in Moscow. The whole area has been subdivided in five
blocks, and the release of regional hazard maps is expected by 1997.
The GSHAP test area has been established in the border region of China-India-Nepal-Myanmar-
Bangla Dash, under the direction of the SSB of Beijing, the GSHAP Regional
Centre, in cooperation with the NGRI of Hyderabad; activities initiated
with a planning meeting in Beijing (10/93), followed by the preliminary
compilation of regional catalogues and by technical workshops in Beijing
(10/94) and Hyderabad (3/96), to produce the final earthquake catalogue,
seismic source zoning and hazard assessment for presentation in occasion
of the ASC Assembly in Tangshan (8/96) and the 30th IGC in Beijing (8/96).
In addition, the Eastern Asia Natural Hazards Mapping project,
led by the GSJ, will produce maps of main hazards and background data,
including earthquakes and felt intensities, for the whole Eastern Asia
region from China to Japan to Indonesia at 1:5 million scale; planning
meetings were held in Tsukuba (6/93) and Yokohama (5/94), and two technical
workshops in Tsukuba (9/94, 9/95). The EANHM project coordinates its activities
with the GSHAP centres in Asia (SSB) and Australia (AGSO).
Activities in the whole region, including Australia, New Zealand and
the S. Pacific Islands, are coordinated in a unified test area by the AGSO
of Canberra. The first GSHAP South-West Pacific/South-East Asia Regional
Meeting was held in Melbourne (11/95), following the Pacific Conference
on Earthquake Engineering, to review ongoing progress and to schedule activities
and regional cooperation; due to the region scattered geography, in a first
phase (1996) activities will progress in independent sub-areas - Australia,
New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Tonga-Fiji, Vanuatu and Solomon Is. - with
common approach and methodology; in the final phase databases and maps
will be merged into a unified seismic hazard assessment for the whole region
in 1997.
GSHAP GLOBAL PROGRAMS
Another key element of the GSHAP implementation is the pursue of activities
and tasks devoted to the improvement of the global practice of seismic
hazard assessment. Three main initiatives are under way and will be completed
by 1997.
I. The creation of a uniform instrumental global seismic
catalogue for this century.
With the aim of extending the global instrumental earthquake catalogue
and database, now available since 1964 (ISC, NEIC), to cover the whole
century, work is in progress at USGS and University of Colorado, under
a NSF grant, on the digital scanning and processing of the ISS Bulletins;
scanning will be completed by the end of 1996, and event location in early
1997, using modern travel-times and location procedures used at NEIC; scanning
and processing of the BCIS unbound Bulletins is also planned, starting
in the summer of 1996. Due to technical difficulties, no work is proposed
for the moment on the determination of a uniform Mw magnitude for the whole
catalogue.
II. Software for seismic hazard assessment.
The goal of across-boundary integration of seismic hazard databases
and products was identified in the Rome 1992 planning meeting as crucial
to the global implementation of GSHAP. While recognizing that each region
may pursue its own approach to seismic hazard assessment depending on the
characteristics of its seismicity and on the coverage and quality of the
earthquake record, GSHAP has identified the seismotectonic probabilistic
approach as a suitable standard for global application, to allow the
comparison and integration of regional maps and zonations. To implement
this strategy, by making available worldwide an integrated software package
dealing with all the steps of seismotectonic hazard computation, the code
FRISK88M by Risk Engineering has been selected among several available
algorithms, and is now distributed free of charge by Risk Engineering for
GSHAP applications to all test areas and regional centres. In addition,
GSHAP has cooperated in the preparation of algorithms for catalogue handling
and toolboxes for the definition of seismic source zoning, which will become
available on the IASPEI Shareware Software Library.
III. Multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment.
The global evaluation of seismic hazard requires the characterization
of the earthquake cycle over recurrence times spanning from 10-102
years in active tectonic areas to 103-105 years in
areas of slow crustal deformation. A primary goal of GSHAP has been the
implementation of a multisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment
introducing the results from geological disciplines dealing with active
faulting (neotectonics, paleoseismology, geomorphology, geodesy) to complement
the historical and instrumental records of earthquakes. This goal has been
pursued with several initiatives:
i. The adoption of the seismotectonic probabilistic approach
for global application reflects the aim to incorporate the geological input
to characterize the earthquake recurrence in space and time.
ii. The workshop on Active Faulting Studies for Seismic Hazard Assessment,
held in Erice (Sicily, 9/95), brought together specialists in active faulting
studies with seismologists and engineers responsible for developing assessment
methodologies and for leading major national seismic hazard programs from
all continents, to explore new trends in active faulting studies and verify
the extent to which the geological input is being used in seismic hazard
assessment practice. The workshop produced a document of recommendations,
which is being circulated worldwide.
iii. GSHAP and the ILP Projects II-2: Maps of Major Active Faults
and II-3: Earthquakes of the Late Holocene have joint activities
under way and scheduled for 1995-97, including the 1996 NATO/ARW Historical
and Pre-historical Earthquakes in the Caucasus and the Training
Course in Paleoseismology and Active Faulting in South America in 1997.
iv. Scientific articles illustrating strategies and examples in multidisciplinary
seismic hazard assessment have been published on proceedings volumes and
scientific journals; among these, the GSHAP Volume (Annali di Geofisica,
vol. 36-3, 1993) includes seminal papers on the integration of the geological
input in seismic hazard assessment.
COOPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES
The implementation of GSHAP relies on the cooperation with several
international scientific agencies, commissions and programs.
It is noted here that the impact of the Decade in the scientific community
has been less widespread and effective than originally expected, and that,
with few notable exceptions, the support provided by UN agencies to demonstration
programs like GSHAP has been minor. However, GSHAP obtains support on the
basis of its scientific value and will prove useful to the scientific-engineering
community and to the general public beyond the end of the Decade.
INTERNATIONAL LITHOSPHERE PROGRAM
ILP has launched GSHAP (ILP Project II-0) and established its
worldwide operation. The integration between GSHAP and the ILP Projects
II-2: Maps of Major Active Faults and II-3: Earthquakes of the
Late Holocene was planned since the beginning and now has several joint
activities under way and scheduled for 1995-97, including the 1995 Erice
workshop on Active Faulting Studies for Seismic Hazard Assessment,
the 1996 NATO/ARW Historical and Pre-historical Earthquakes in
the Caucasus and the Training Course in Paleoseismology and Active
Faulting in South America in 1997.
INTERNAT. ASSOCIATION OF SEISMOLOGY AND PHYSICS OF THE EARTH INTERIOR
Seismic hazard assessment is a multidisciplinary effort geared at integrating
the input from different geophysical and geological disciplines represented
in IUGG and IUGS; however, the traditional affiliation of seismic hazard
is within IASPEI and here GSHAP has found the largest support. Several
IASPEI commissions and working groups have an active role in the GSHAP
implementation: the Commission on Earthquake Prediction and Hazard
is running jointly with GSHAP the Caucasus test area, the Committee
for Developing Countries and the Commission for the IDNDR have
been kept closely informed and involved in GSHAP activities, the Working
Group on Earthquake Risk and Losses is active within the RELEMR program
and held joined activities in Moscow (10/93), the European Seismological
Commission is effectively coordinating GSHAP activities in the larger
European-Mediterranean area, allocating special sessions to GSHAP within
its annual assemblies, and it is also expected that the newly formed Asian
Seismological Commissions will help promote GSHAP implementation.
UNESCO
UNESCO is very active in the field of seismic risk assessment and mitigation
and has provided overall support to GSHAP activities. In particular, GSHAP
is working in close coordination with three UNESCO programs:
i. the UNESCO/USGS program Reduction of Earthquake Risk in the Eastern
Mediterranean Region is integrated in the framework of regional test
areas activated by GSHAP in the larger Mediterranean area;
ii. UNESCO has encouraged a GSHAP proposal for a program on Seismotectonics
and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Mediterranean for its International
Geological Correlation Program;
iii. GSHAP is participating in the UNESCO/GFZ International
Training Courses in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment in
1995 in Central America and in 1997 in Kenya.
INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SCIENTIFIC UNIONS
GSHAP is one of the programs selected by the ICSU Committee for IDNDR
as scientific contribution to the IDNDR. ICSU has been very supportive
of GSHAP since its beginning, providing guidance, encouragement and managing
funds which have helped to promote GSHAP activities in several key areas.
UN/IDNDR Secretariat
The Secretariat has recently launched the program Risk Assessment
and Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters (RADIUS), with
the International Workshop on Earthquake Disaster Reduction in Urban Areas
held in Jakarta (6/95). RADIUS is the natural sequel to GSHAP in the IDNDR
context, moving from hazard assessment to engineering applications and
risk mitigation strategies. GSHAP has been requested to provide input to
RADIUS and the cooperation between the two programs is expected to be close.
INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERS
The need to close the bridge often existing between the scientific
and engineering communities working in seismic hazard and risk assessment
was recognized in the GSHAP planning and the cooperation with the engineering
community has been established. The IAEE World Seismic Safety Initiative
has recognized GSHAP and accepted GSHAP observers at the WSSI Board of
Directors (Vienna, 8/94) and at the Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering
(Melbourne, 11/95); representatives of the engineering community sit on
the GSHAP Steering Committee. However, no concrete joint initiatives are
planned to take place within the period of GSHAP implementation.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL
The EC Open Partial Agreement on Major Disasters has named the CNCPRST
of Rabat, one of the GSHAP Regional Centres, as the Centre EuroMediterraneen
d'Evaluation et de Prevention du Risque Sismique or Seismic Hazard Assessment
(CEPRIS), with the mandate of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb
and Western Mediterranean areas.
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
The WMO Hydrology and Water Resources Department is implementing its
System for Technology Exchange for Natural Disasters (STEND), an information
exchange programme aimed at increasing awareness of available technology
through the dissemination of knowledge about the different methodologies
used in fields related to natural hazards; targeted at developing countries,
STEND has been adopted by the UN/IDNDR as a spearhead program. GSHAP closely
cooperates with STEND: seismic hazard is one of the key fields of implementation
of STEND; representatives of IASPEI and GSHAP sit on the STEND Advisory
Committee; GSHAP is collecting entries on seismic hazard assessment technologies
for the STEND Reference Manual under preparation; the GSHAP Regional Centres
will be included in the list of focal points for knowledge transfer.
FUNDING
The GSHAP implementation and the activities of the Regional Centres
and test areas require significant funding. Contrary to the original expectations,
the support directly provided or fostered by the UN/IDNDR has been minimal
and GSHAP has secured support from different sources:
A. Funds provided or raised by the Regional Centres have been instrumental
to organize workshops and conduct activities at the Regional Centres (most
notably at GFZ, SSB, IIEES, JIPE and Nairobi University).
B. Special funds raised by the Coordinating Centres to organize general
GSHAP events such as the 1992 Technical Planning meeting in Rome, the publication
of the GSHAP Technical Volume, the 1995 Workshop on Active Faulting Studies
for Seismic Hazard Assessment; special funds will be needed also for the
final phase of publication of results.
C. Projects submitted to international funding agencies for scientific
research and cooperation provide significant support for the implementation
of the test areas in South America (CEC Ct. 94-0103: Pilot project for
regional earthquake monitoring and seismic hazard assessment), the Caucasus
(INTAS Ct. 94-1644: Test area for seismic hazard assessment in the Caucasus;
NATO-ARW Historical and prehistorical earthquakes in the Caucasus), the
Mediterranean (EC/OPA CEPRIS; UNESCO/IGCP Sismotectonics and seismic hazrad
assessment of the Mediterranean). Proposals are pending or in preparation
to support activities in Africa and Central-Southern Asia.
D. A coordinating fund has been provided in the last years by international
scientific agencies (ILP, ICSU, IASPEI), and by ING, averaging about 22.000$
per year; occasional contributions have been made by UNESCO and Kinemetrics.
E. As detailed above in the survey of regional activities, several
international projects and test areas in seismic hazard assessment are
activated and supported by other agencies and programs in different areas
of the world (e.g. RELEMR, EANHM, BEECD, PAIGH), with coordination with
GSHAP.
With the funding secured by GSHAP until now (A-D), it is estimated
that by the closing of the program in 1997, the overall budget for the
GSHAP implementation will exceed 1.5 M$.
PUBLICATIONS
The dissemination and publication of GSHAP ideas and results is rapidly
increasing: the first print of the GSHAP Volume (Annali di Geofisica, vol.
36, 3-4, 1993; 2000 copies) has been distributed worldwide, receiving praise
and recognition; GSHAP activities and results have been presented at the
major international and regional assemblies and meetings of the last three
years; research papers and articles describing the program's approach and
regional activities have appeared on scientific journals, special volumes
and regional bulletins; sessions dedicated to GSHAP have been hosted by
the assemblies of IASPEI, ESC, ASC and SSA and by other international meetings;
GSHAP workshops have been organized in all test areas, as listed above.
As these activities will continue in the second phase of the program, the
number of published articles and reports is expected to increase.
In addition, progress reports and summaries prepared by the Coordinating
Centre have been distributed worldwide (7/92, 11/92, 12/93, 2/94, 9/94,
6/95 and 3/96) and periodic summaries have appeared on bulletins and newsletter
of IASPEI, ICSU, ILP, AGU.
At the planned closing of the program in 1997, most of the GSHAP test
areas will produce their final hazard assessment, and a one-year phase
is planned to allow the publication and dissemination of results, including
a special volume collecting the reports of all test areas, the distribution
of CD-ROMs containing earthquake databases, seismic source zoning and hazard
maps.
Finally, starting with this summary, GSHAP will be on the Internet.
Program reports, workshop announcements and minutes, reports of regional
centres and test areas and regional maps of seismic hazard will be found
at the ING site www.ingrm.it and the ILP site www.gfz-potsdam.de/pb4/ilp.
STEERING COMMITTEE
The GSHAP implementation and activities are supervised by a Steering
Committee listing 15 renown experts in seismic hazard assessment and earthquake
engineering from all the world. The role of the Steering Committee has
been instrumental in setting guidelines, conducting regional activities,
raising support and participating in the global programs of GSHAP.
Steering Committee meetings have been held routinely, more often in
conjunction with major international scientific assemblies: Rome (6/92),
Ixtapa (4/94), Wellington (1/95), Brasilia (8/94), Boulder (7/95), Erice
(8/95). Future ad-hoc meetings are scheduled in occasion of the 1996 assemblies
of the ASC in Tangshan (8/96) and of the ESC in Reykjavik (9/96); a plenary
meeting will be convened at the 1997 IASPEI General Assembly in Thessaloniki
(8/97) to evaluate the program and plan the final phase of publication
of results.
GSHAP IMPLEMENTATION: 1995-1998
The GSHAP Steering Committee, in its 1995 meetings in Boulder and Erice,
evaluated the first phase of implementation of GSHAP, 1993-95, and prepared
the schedule for the continuation and completion of the program, involving
a second phase of expansion, 1995-97, and a closing phase for the publication
of results and databases and the preparation of a world map of seismic
hazard, 1997-98.
According to the original 1992 plans, the second Phase of the GSHAP
implementation, 1995-97, will be devoted to complete the work in the test
areas and, where possible, to expand them to cover whole continents. By
1997 most of the GSHAP test areas will produce their final hazard assessment,
complemented by regional earthquake catalogues and seismic source zonations,
to be presented in occasion of the GSHAP session at the 1997 IASPEI General
Assembly in Thessaloniki (8/97). These test areas are:
i. South America ii. Andes iii. North America
iv. Central-Northern Europe v. DACH vi. ADRIA
vii. Caucasus viii. African Rift ix. Northern Eurasia
x. China-India xi. Oceania
Other test-areas initiated their activities only recently and will
produce regional hazard assessment later in the Decade; among these are
the Ibero-Maghreb and the Mediterranean. A list of contacts
for these test areas and for the Regional Centres involved in their implementation
is enclosed.
In addition to the regional activities, we expect concrete results
from the projects and tasks devoted to the improvement of the global practice
of seismic hazard assessment:
i. The compilation of a uniform instrumental global seismic catalogue
for this century, derived from the digital scanning of the ISS-BCIS bulletins
and the relocation to modern standards, will be completed by 1997.
ii. An integrated software package, including the code FRISK88M
by Risk Engineering and a toolbox for data handling and preprocessing,
will be used during this phase at GSHAP centres and test areas, ensuring
global integration of databases and results.
iii. The multisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment will
continue to be pursued through the widespread use of the seismotectonic
probabilistic approach in GSHAP test areas, the organization of thematic
workshops and training courses listed above, the integration with the ILP
projects on active faulting and paleoseismology, the publication of scientific
articles and reports.
In addition to regional workshops in all continents, review meetings
at continental scale and ad-hoc meetings of the GSHAP Steering Committee
are scheduled at the 1996 assemblies of the ASC in Tangshan (8/96) and
of the ESC in Reykjavik (9/96). The plenary meeting of the Steering Committee
and the GSHAP special session planned in occasion of the 1997 IASPEI General
Assembly in Thessaloniki (8/97) will close the second phase of GSHAP implementation.
A one-year phase of completion of the GSHAP has been proposed by the
Steering Committee, to be dedicated to the publication of the GSHAP results
and to the compilation of a global map of seismic hazard. This closing
phase will initiate following the 1997 IASPEI General Assembly in Thessaloniki
(8/97), where the Steering Committee will evaluate the overall implementation
of the program.
The closing phase will be devoted to two specific tasks:
I. There is a need to collect in uniform fashion and ensure the publication
and dissemination of the databases and results developed during the implementation
of the test areas; the publication of a special volume, collecting the
reports from the test areas listed above, will be accompanied by the release
of the databases, seismic source zoning and hazard maps on CD-ROM support.
II. The maps produced in the test areas will cover a large part of
the world; to integrate the regional outputs and provide a reference, a
uniform map of global seismic hazard will also be produced; a task group
will be formed in Thessaloniki with the mandate of unifying and integrating
the regional seismic zonings and produce a uniform global map for wide
distribution.
More detailed specifications on both tasks will be developed in the
coming year, and finalized at the closing meeting of the second phase of
implementation 1995-97.
Revised report released on April 1, 1996, by Domenico Giardini, GSHAP
Coordinator