GLOBAL SEISMIC HAZARD
ASSESSMENT PROGRAM
PROGRESS REPORT - 1996
The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program is a demonstration
program of the UN/IDNDR, proposed in 1992 by ILP and ICSU. GSHAP has completed
its first phase of implementation in the fall of 1995; the second phase
is now under way and will bring the program to conclusion in 1997.
The second phase of the GSHAP implementation is devoted to continue
and complete the work in selected test areas for multi-national, multidisciplinary
seismic hazard assessment; where possible, hazard mapping is extended to
cover whole continents. While in the early part of the program the attention
went on establishing regional centres, uniform assessment procedures and
funding strategies, the emphasis is now on completing the multi-national,
multi-disciplinary hazard assessment in these key test areas, providing
products which can be readily implemented in risk mitigation strategies
within the UN/IDNDR framework.
The present report summarizes the main activities and program status
at the end of 1996, the plan of action for 1997 and the proposal for a
one-year phase, ending in 1998, devoted to the publication of the GSHAP
results and the preparation of a world map of seismic hazard and of specific
hazard products oriented toward megacities. A more extensive description
of the GSHAP strategies and implementation in the 1992-1995 period is contained
in previous yearly Progress Reports and in the Summary Report 1993-95.
REGIONAL TEST AREAS
The test areas where work is presently progressing in the GSHAP framework
are:
i. South America ii. Andes iii. Central-North America
iv. Central-Northern Europe v. DACH vi. Ibero-Maghreb
vii. ADRIA viii. E. Mediterranean ix. Caucasus
x. African Rift xi. Northern Eurasia xii. China-India-Nepal
xiii. Oceania
By 1997 most of these test areas will produce a preliminary or final
hazard assessment, complemented by regional earthquake catalogues and seismic
source zonations, to be presented at the final GSHAP event, a workshop
of the 1997 IASPEI General Assembly in Greece (26/8/97).
It should be noted that several bilateral and multinational projects
are conducted in different continents independently from GSHAP; the GSHAP
role has been to promote new activities where regional cooperation was
poor and to integrate its initiatives with existing programs where available.
Among these, we note the Eastern Asia Natural Hazards Mapping project
led by the GSJ, producing maps of main hazards and background data, including
earthquakes and felt intensities, for the whole Eastern Asia region, the
UNESCO/USGS program Reduction of Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean
Region, the 5-year UNESCO/IUGS International Geological Correlation
Program n.382 SESAME: Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment
of the Mediterranean basin, initiated in 1992 to integrate the existing
regional databases in a unified seismic hazard assessment for the whole
basin, and several bilateral and multinational initiatives recently completed
or under way in Central America.
Technical reports and minutes are available for most of the listed
activities. A list of contacts for the test areas is enclosed.
I. SOUTH AMERICA
The whole South American continent has been targeted as test area by
the CERESIS Regional Centre. CERESIS completed in 1996 a new seismic hazard
assessment for the whole continent, as part of the four-part seismic hazard
mapping of Central and South America supported by PAIGH/IDRC; the new map
is based on an updated earthquake catalogue extending the 1981 SISRA catalogue
to 1991 and on a new regional seismic source zonation.
II. ANDES
Five Andean countries (Bolivia to Venezuela) and four European countries
cooperate in the PILOTO program (Test area for earthquake monitoring
and seismic hazard assessment), launched under GSHAP and sponsored
by the European Community (Ct.94-0103) to produce comparative maps of seismic
hazard assessment for the Andean region. Activities in 1996 included the
compilation of national earthquake catalogues and source zonings, in preparation
for a regional hazard assessment exercise held in Colombia (1/97); a joint
ILP/PILOTO Training course in paleo-seismology and active faulting is
scheduled in Venezuela in (2/97) and the final hazard assessment workshop
will be held in Ecuador (5/97).
III. CENTRAL-NORTH AMERICA
A network of national and regional programs in seismic hazard assessment
covers Canada, the US, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbeans. The
role of GSHAP has been to promote inter-program coordination at continental
scale and to connect activities in Central-North America with other regions;
for example, PAIGH has adopted the GSHAP standards in regional program
in Central America. A working group led by GSC, USGS and UNAM is expected
to produce by 1997 a unified seismic hazard map of North America under
GSHAP, joining the existing national and regional source zonings.
IV. CENTRAL-NORTHERN EUROPE
The GSHAP implementation in Central-Northern Europe is coordinated
by the GFZ Regional Centre in Potsdam. In 1996 the regional seismic catalogue
has been completed with the addition of the database for Fennoscandia and
of the SIRENE catalogue for France, for the first time released for an
international program. The first hazard zonation has been presented in
1996 at the 25th ESC Assembly (Iceland, 9/96), where a meeting of the working
group was held; the final hazard assessment, including Fennoscandia, will
be presented in 1997.
V. DACH
A unified hazard assessment for the German speaking countries (Germany-Austria-Switzerland)
has been produced by national teams including seismologists and engineers,
under the coordination of GFZ at Potsdam, as preparatory work for the implementation
of the new european seismic building construction code (EC8). It is the
first time that a major country, i.e. Germany, adopts as basis for its
national building code a map produced also through multi-national cooperation.
DACH has also been promoted as GSHAP test area. Regular meetings have been
held in the last years towards the preparation of the final map produced
in 1996.
VI. IBERO-MAGHREB
The original plan called for the reactivation of a former ESC program
under the coordination of the CNCPRST of Rabat, the regional GSHAP centre.
In 1996, the CNCPRST succedeed with GSHAP support in setting up the Centre
Euro-Mediterraneen d'Evaluation et de Prevention du Risque Sismique or
Seismic Hazard Assessment (CEPRIS) in Rabat under the Open Partial
Agreement on Natural Disasters of the European Council, with the mandate
of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western Mediterranean
areas; CEPRIS will initiate its activities in 1997. To ensure that a first
generation of hazard mapping for the Ibero-Maghreb area is produced within
the GSHAP implementation period, the CSIC of Barcelona is now coordinating
the activities in the area, starting with the 6° International Forum
on Seismic Zonation: First Ibero-Maghreb Region Conference organized
by UNESCO, USGS and CSIC in Barcelona (12/96) with partial support from
GSHAP and IGCP/SESAME. Following the guidelines issued during the workshop,
a working group is now preparing the databases for a second technical workshop,
to be held with IGCP support in the spring 1997 to complete the first regional
hazard mapping.
VII. ADRIA
This project includes all countries bordering on the Adriatic Sea,
from the Alps to Greece, coordinated by OGS of Trieste. Preliminary seismic
zoning maps and earthquake catalogue have been compiled during a series
of regional meetings in 1994-95 and presented in preliminary form at the
ESC assembly (Iceland, 9/96). The final hazard assessment will be completed
by 1997.
VIII.EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
The UNESCO/IGCP SESAME and the UNESCO/USGS RELEMR are coordinating
their activities, leading toward a unified hazard mapping for the whole
area. In 1996 SESAME organized its first Training workshop on seismotectonics
and seismic hazard analysis in the Eastern Mediterranean countries
in Cairo (12/96); a second workshop is planned for 1997 to produce preliminary
regional hazard, possibly to be presented at the IASPEI General Assembly
(Greece, 8/97). RELEMR includes hazard mapping from Turkey to the Red Sea
among its goals; in 1996 a workshop was held in Cyprus (12/96), dealing
also with seismic hazard; a special session on RELEMR will be held at the
IASPEI General Assembly (Greece, 8/97).
IX. CAUCASUS
The Test Area for Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Caucasus
is coordinated by GSHAP with IASPEI endorsement and INTAS support (Ct.94-1644),
joining seismological institutions from the Caucasian republics, Russia,
Turkey and Iran. Multinational working groups have been formed, with scheduled
activities and workshops for 1996-97; the earthquake catalogue (historical
and instrumental) and the seismic zoning have been produced in 1996; the
main 1996 event was the NATO-ARW Historical and prehistorical earthquakes
in the Caucasus, held in Armenia (Ct.95-1521, 7/96); the proceedings
volume are under publication with Kluwer. The main 1997 event with be the
closing CAUCAS meeting, planned in late spring in Georgia, where regional
hazard produced with different codes and phylosophies will be compared.
X. AFRICAN RIFT
The Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Seismological Working Group,
with support from Sweden, IASPEI and GSHAP, continues holding periodic
workshops to compile the regional earthquake catalogue and hazard mapping
for the Rift area, with the participation of external experts. During the
last workshop in Zimbabwe (3/96) the first generation of regional hazard
assessment has been produced, and for the first time eight of the nine
participating countries now have a national seismic hazard map; in addition,
site-specific hazard assessments for the capital cities along the Rift
have been produced; a refined generation of hazard mapping is expected
for the next workshop planned in Eritrea (5/97). The GSHAP Regional Centre
at the University of Nairobi has compiled a seismic zonation following
a historical probabilistic approach and will host the next UNESCO/GFZ International
Training Course in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment (9/97).
XI. NORTHERN EURASIA
The GSHAP Regional Centre in Moscow, JIPE, is coordinating the seismic
hazard mapping for the whole territory of the former USSR. This five-year
program, initiated before the FSU break-up and interrupted during the period
of more intense political turmoil, is now proceeding with the compilation
of catalogue and the assessment of hazard, using for the first time a probabilistic
approach. The first generation of mapping has been obtained during 1996.
XII. CHINA-INDIA-NEPAL
The GSHAP test area has been established in the border region of China,
India, Nepal, Myanmar and Bangla-Dash, under the direction of the SSB of
Beijing, the GSHAP Regional Centre, in cooperation with the NGRI of Hyderabad;
it is the first time that this type of regional framework is effectively
operating in the region. In 1996 a technical workshop was held in Hyderabad
(India, 3/96), with experts from the region and from the international
community, to produce the first generation of regional earthquake catalogue,
seismic source zoning and hazard assessment; these have been presented
in occasion of the first ASC Assembly in Tangshan (China, 8/96) and the
30th IGC in Beijing (8/96). Final work to refine these products is planned
for the spring of 1997.
XIII. OCEANIA
Activities in the whole region, including Australia, New Zealand and
the S. Pacific Islands, are coordinated in a unified test area by the AGSO
of Canberra. Following the first GSHAP South-West Pacific/South-East Asia
Regional Meeting (Melbourne, 11/95), activities are progressing in independent
sub-areas (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Tonga-Fiji, Vanuatu
and Solomon Is.) with common approach and methodology. Unified databases
and hazard maps for the whole region are expected in 1997.
GSHAP GLOBAL PROGRAMS
In addition to the regional activities, we expect in 1997 concrete
results from the projects and tasks devoted to the improvement of the global
practice of seismic hazard assessment:
i. The compilation of a uniform instrumental global seismic catalogue
for this century, derived from the digital scanning of the ISS-BCIS bulletins
and the relocation to modern standards, will be completed in 1997 by USGS
and University of Colorado, with NSF support.
ii. The code FRISK88M for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
is provided for the GSHAP implementation by Risk Engineering and is now
in use in most GSHAP test areas and regional centres, ensuring global integration
of databases and results.
iii. The pursue of a multisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment
will continue in 1997 through the widespread use of the seismotectonic
probabilistic approach in GSHAP test areas, the organization of thematic
workshops and training courses as listed above, the integration with the
ILP projects on active faulting and paleoseismology, the publication of
scientific articles and reports.
COOPERATION WITH OTHER PROGRAMS/AGENCIES
The implementation of GSHAP relies on the cooperation with several
international scientific agencies, commissions and programs.
ILP launched GSHAP (ILP Project II-0) and established
its worldwide operation. The integration between GSHAP and the ILP Projects
II-2: Maps of Major Active Faults and II-3: Earthquakes of the
Late Holocene has improved since the GSHAP beginning. Joint activities
in 1996 included the NATO/ARW Historical and Pre-historical Earthquakes
in the Caucasus. In February 1997 the ILP Training Course in
Paleoseismology and Active Faulting will be held in Venezuela with
GSHAP support.
The common affiliation of seismic hazard is within the seismological
community represented by IASPEI. Several IASPEI commissions and
working groups have an active role in the GSHAP implementation. In particular,
in 1996 the Committee for Developing Countries and the Commission
for the IDNDR have been in close contact with GSHAP and the European
and Asian Seismological Ccommissions have supported GSHAP
activities and hosted special sessions within their general assemblies.
The 1997 IASPEI General Assembly in Thessalonicki will host a workshop
dedicated to GSHAP (W17, 26/8) and will dedicate its plenary lecture to
the GSHAP implementation (L2, 26/8); on the following day (27/8) the GSHAP
Steering Committee will meet.
UNESCO maintains its overall support to GSHAP activities. In
1996 GSHAP worked in close coordination with three UNESCO programs: the
UNESCO/USGS program Reduction of Earthquake Risk in the Eastern Mediterranean
Region, integrated in the framework of regional test areas activated
by GSHAP in the larger Mediterranean area, the UNESCO/IUGS International
Geological Correlation Program n.382: Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard
Assessment of the Mediterranean and the UNESCO/GFZ International
Training Courses in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment.
GSHAP is one of the programs selected by the ICSU Special Committee
for the IDNDR as scientific contribution to the IDNDR, and then approved
by the UN/IDNDR Scientific-Technical Committee as demonstration
program of the Decade. Following the guidelines emerged in the 1994 UN/IDNDR
Assembly in Yokohama, the STC has conducted an evaluation of the demonstration
value of its programs (Moscow, 3/96); with regard to GSHAP, the Committee
recommended that, in addition to regional hazard mapping, in its final
phase GSHAP consider including products specifically geared toward practical
implementation in risk mitigation strategies within the Decade time framework
with special emphasis on megacities. These evaluation and suggestions were
discussed by the GSHAP Steering Committee (Beijing, 8/96) and further elaborated
during the meeting of the ICSU Special Committee for the IDNDR (Paris,
12/96). The GSHAP Steering Committee will prepare the plan for a one-year
final phase taking into account the UN/IDNDR and ICSU suggestions, as specified
in the following section.
CLOSING PHASE: 1997-1998
A one-year phase of completion of the GSHAP has been proposed by the
Steering Committee, to be dedicated to the publication of the GSHAP results
and to the compilation of products which could be of direct use in the
final years of the Decade implementation. This closing phase will initiate
following the 1997 IASPEI General Assembly (Greece, 8/97), where the Steering
Committee will evaluate the overall implementation of the program.
Three possible tasks for the GSHAP closing phase have been proposed
by the GSHAP Steering Committee, by the UN/IDNDR Scientific-Technical Committe
and by the ICSU Special Committee on the IDNDR. More tasks could emerge
in Greece.
I. To collect in uniform fashion and publish the databases and results
developed during the implementation of the test areas; the publication
of a special volume, collecting the reports from the test areas listed
above, will be accompanied by the release of the databases, seismic source
zoning and hazard maps, possibly on CD-ROM support.
II. The maps produced in the test areas will cover a large part of
the world; to integrate the regional outputs and provide a reference, a
uniform map of global seismic hazard will also be produced; a task group
will be formed in Greece with the mandate of unifying and integrating the
regional seismic zonings and produce a uniform global map for wide distribution.
III. The final years of the Decade will focus on the protection of
megacities, moving from hazard assessment to engineering applications and
risk mitigation strategies for multiple natural hazards in complex systems.
Several UN sponsored initiatives are under way, including the program
Risk Assessment and Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters
(RADIUS) sponsored by the IDNDR Secretariat. GSHAP has been requested to
provide input to the megacities programs; the evaluation of site-specific
seismic hazard for megacities located within the GSHAP test areas has been
suggested by the ICSU SC/IDNDR. The cooperation between GSHAP and the megacities
programs is expected to remain close in the final GSHAP phase.
More detailed specifications on these tasks will be developed in the
coming year, and a final consensus and a precise schedule will be achieved
at the GSHAP closing meeting in 1997
Report released on January 31, 1997, by D. Giardini, GSHAP Coordinator
GSHAP