GLOBAL
SEISMIC
HAZARD
ASSESSMENT
PROGRAM
(GSHAP)
CLOSING Report TO THE IDNDR/STC
1992 - 1998
GSHAP HISTORY
| DESIGN PRINCIPLES
| SUMMARY OF REGIONAL ACTIVITIES
| THE GSHAP MAP OF GLOBAL SEISMIC HAZARD
5 YEARS OF GSHAP WORKSHOPS
| GSHAP GLOBAL PROGRAMS
| COORPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES
| FUNDING
STEERING COMMITTEE
| SUCCESSES & FAILURES
| Acknowledgments
Appendix I: Index, GSHAP Summary Volume, Annali di Geofisica, 1999
| Appendix II: List of GSHAP Contacts
| Appendix III: Acronyms
The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment
Program (GSHAP) was launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program
(ILP) with the support of the International Council of Scientific Unions
(ICSU), and endorsed as a demonstration program in the framework of the
United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR).
In order to mitigate the risk associated
to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promotes a regionally coordinated,
homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation; the ultimate benefits
are improved national and regional assessments of seismic hazards, to be
used by national decision makers and engineers for land use planning and
improved building design and construction.
The GSHAP was implemented in the 1992-1998
period and is coming to conclusion. All regional activities are now completed,
and the publication of all regional results and of the GSHAP map of global
seismic hazard is under way.
Regional reports, GSHAP yearly reports,
summaries and maps of seismicity, source zones and seismic hazard are on
the GSHAP homepage on http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.
This report summarizes the development, the regional activities and the
achievements of the GSHAP.
| 8.91 |
following the ICSU request to provide scientific input for IDNDR demonstration activities,
ILP initiates the planning and preparation for the GSHAP
|
|---|
| 3.92 |
the UN/IDNDR Scientific and Technical Committee endorses the GSHAP as a Decade demonstration project |
|---|
| 6.92 |
the GSHAP is launched with a Technical Planning Meeting in Rome, to focus the consensus of the scientific
community on the development of a multi-national and multi-disciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment,
to define schedule and structure of the program |
|---|
| 92-93 |
the first year is devoted to
the definition and implementation of the regional and management structure,
the establishment of the program in the international scientific and engineering
communities, the coordination with other UN/IDNDR activities, the establishment
of a funding strategy |
|---|
| 7.93 |
the GSHAP Volume is published (Annali di Geofisica, vol. 36, 3-4), containing all program documents,
a revision of the existing status-quo in global seismic hazard and the
technical guidelines for the GSHAP implementation |
|---|
| 93-95 |
The first implementation phase is devoted to implement the key strategic elements of the program: the
operation of regional centres in all continents and the activation of multinational
test areas for seismic hazard assessment in regions of high seismotectonic significance |
|---|
| 8.95 |
program evaluation (Boulder, IUGG Assembly) |
|---|
| 95-97 |
the second implementation phase extends the GSHAP coverage to more test areas and regions covering the
most of the world |
|---|
| 8.97 |
regional results are presented and evaluated in a special meeting (Thessalonicki, IASPEI Assembly); plans
for the final phase of GSHAP are drawn |
|---|
| 97-98 |
the final phase focuses on the completion of regional hazard assessment, on the compilation of all regional
databases and results, on the compilation of the GSHAP map of global seismic
hazard, on the dissemination of GSHAP products and materials (special volumes,
maps, CD-ROM, web) |
|---|
| 6.99 |
publication of the GSHAP Summary
volume |
|---|
| 7.99 |
the GSHAP map of global seismic
hazard is presented at the IDNDR Closing Conference in Geneva |
|---|
The GSHAP has been designed as a Decade
demonstration project, adopting and implementing the following design principles:
- Hazard assessment is the primary input for the implementation of risk mitigation strategies
- Scientific research is a key to engineering applications
- Maintain high scientific standards
- Ensure consensus and enlarge participation at all levels
- Enforce a multi-disciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment
- Work across boundaries
- Enhance the role of developing countries
- Ensure technology transfer
- Focus on key geographical and border areas
- Ensure the implementation of regional and global results in national policies
To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP
strategy established in Roma in 1992 has been to establish a mosaic of
regions under the coordination of chosen of regional centers. The goal
in the first implementation phase (1993-95) was to compute the seismic
hazard in selected test areas, and to then expand in the second phase (1995-97)
to cover whole continents and finally the globe. This strategy has been
maintained in many of the originally established ten regions, while elsewhere
the activities focussed directly on key test-areas under the coordination
of large working groups. Some areas, specifically the Mediterranean and
the Middle East, have been covered by a mosaic of overlapping projects,
while elsewhere (i.e. parts of Africa and of the Western Pacific rim) the
hazard mapping was obtained only at the end of the program by using published
materials.
In specific cases GSHAP allied with
existing hazard projects with similar purpose and methodologies, to avoid
duplications and strengthen the across-boundary cooperation (i.e. in the
Balcans and Near-East).
Following the Rome 1992 guidelines,
the general rule has been to establish for each region or test area a working
group of national experts covering the different fields required for seismic
hazard assessment, to produce common regional catalogues and databases
and to assess regional hazard.
GSHAP was globally coordinated in the
1992-97 period by ING, Roma, in the final 1997-99 period by ETH, Zurich.
The following list and the map illustrate
the global coverage of GSHAP, separating GSHAP Regions (outlined in black
in Figure), Test Areas (blue) and Cooperating Projects (green).
GSHAP Regions
1. Central-North America
2. South America (CERESIS)
3. Central-Northern Europe
6. Middle East (Iran)
7. Northern Eurasia
8. Eastern Asia
10. South-West Pacific
GSHAP Test Areas
Northern Andes (PILOTO)
Caucasus (CAUCAS)
Adriatic Sea (ADRIA)
East African Rift
India-China-Tibet-Myanmar-Bangla Dash
Ibero-Maghreb
Cooperating Projects
Mexico-C. America-Caribbean-S. America (PAIGH-IDRC)
Circum Pannonian Basin (EU-QSEZ-CIRPAN)
Eastern Mediterranean (RELEMR, USGS/UNESCO)
Mediterranean (SESAME, IGCP 382)
In the following we summarize the GSHAP
regional activities in 1992-98. Maps, catalogues, databases and reports
are found on http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.
CENTRAL-NORTH AMERICA (GSHAP Region 1)
A network of national and regional programs
in seismic hazard assessment covers the whole region: the new provisional
US map has been released in 1996 and Canada and Mexico have also recently
revised their national hazard maps; PAIGH completes in 1995-96 its four-part
seismic hazard assessment of Central-South America, producing maps for
Mexico, Central America South of Mexico, the Caribbeans and South America;
cooperative and bilateral programs are active in different areas of Central
America under support of agencies from North America and Europe (Norway,
European Union). In this framework the role of GSHAP has been to promote
inter-program coordination at continental scale and to connect activities
in Central-Northern America with other regions. A multinational effort
led by USGS as Regional Centre has produced in 1997 a unified seismic hazard
map of North-America under GSHAP, joining the existing national and regional
source zonings. Additional products under the GSHAP banner include the
compilation of a new global instrumental earthquake catalogue, starting
from the scanning and digital processing of the ISS and BCIS Bulletins,
and the editing of a new compilation of strong ground motion attenuation
laws.
SOUTH AMERICA (GSHAP Region 2)
The whole South American continent has
been selected as test area under the CERESIS Regional Centre. CERESIS completed
in 1995-96 the new seismic hazard assessment for the whole continent, as
part of the four-part seismic hazard mapping of Central and Southern America
led by PAIGH/IDRC; the new map is based on an updated earthquake catalogue
extending the 1981 SISRA catalogue to 1991 and on a new regional seismic
source zonation. GSHAP initiatives held in South America include the participation
in the UNESCO-GFZ "International Training Course on Seismology and Seismic
Hazard Assessment" in Costarica (10/95).
CENTRAL-NORTHERN EUROPE (GSHAP Region 3)
The GSHAP implementation in Central-Northern
Europe was coordinated by the GFZ Regional Centre in Potsdam. Following
a planning meeting held in Potsdam (7/93) and a workshop in De Bilt (12/94),
the regional seismic catalogue was completed for NW Europe in 1996 with
the addition of the database for Fennoscandia and of the SIRENE catalogue
for France, for the first time released for an international program. The
final SHA map was presented in 1997, including the whole territory north
of 46°N. The seismic hazard for France has now been completed also
south of 46°N. A unified hazard assessment for the German speaking
countries (Germany-Austria-Switzerland) was produced in 1996 by national
teams including seismologists and engineers, under the coordination of
GFZ at Potsdam, as preparatory work for the implementation of the new european
seismic building construction code (EC8). DACH has also been promoted as
GSHAP test area. In addition, an independent zonation is now available
for Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia, coordinated by Prague University.
MIDDLE EAST (GSHAP Region 6)
The Regional Centre at IIEES, Tehran,
has coordinated activities in the area with a direct involvement in the
CAUCAS test area and with workshops organized in Tehran (1/93), Ashgabad
(10/94) and Tehran (5/95). These activities will continue in the future,
and the SEE-3 conference, scheduled in Tehran for May 1999, will include
a session on regional seismic hazard.
NORTHERN EURASIA (GSHAP Region 7)
The GSHAP Regional Centre in Moscow, JIPE,
is coordinating the seismic hazard mapping for the whole territory of the
former USSR. A five-year program, initiated before the FSU break-up and
interrupted during the period of more intense political turmoil, has been
restarted, leading to the compilation of the seismic catalogue and the
SHA, using for the first time a probabilistic approach. Technical workshops
are held routinely in Moscow. The area has been subdivided in five blocks,
and the regional hazard maps in MSK were completed in 1998.
EASTERN ASIA (GSHAP Region 8)
Following in the original framework planned
in Rome, 1992, the hazard mapping for the whole Eastern Asia originates
from the expansion of the test area initially established in the border
region of China-India-Nepal-Myanmar-Bangla Dash. The regional mapping has
been coordinated by the SSB Regional Centre in Beijing, in coordination
with the other Regional Centres (JIPE, Moscow, and AGSO, Canberra) and
with the direct assistance of the USGS. The hazard incorporated the results
of the technical meetings held in Beijing (10/93, 10/94) and Hyderabad
(3/96). All Eastern Asian countries have participated directly in this
regional effort, with the exclusion of Japan, for which an existing national
hazard map was incorporated.
In addition, the "Eastern Asia Natural
Hazards Mapping" project, led by the GSJ, has compiled seismicity maps
for the whole Eastern Asia region from China to Japan to Indonesia at 1:5
million scale; planning meetings were held in Tsukuba (6/93) and Yokohama
(5/94), and two technical workshops in Tsukuba (9/94, 9/95). The EANHM
project coordinated its activities with the GSHAP centres in Asia (SSB)
and Australia (AGSO).
SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC (GSHAP Region 10)
Activities in this vast area have progressed
in independent sub-areas (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Tonga-Fiji,
Vanuatu and Solomon Is.), with a coordinating "South-West Pacific/South-East
Asia Regional Meeting" hosted by AGSO in Melbourne (11/95). Given the peculiar
character of the whole area, including only island states with no direct
boundaries, the approach has been to merge national hazard maps with a
careful selection to ensure homogeneity; Australia and New Zealand have
also produced revised national maps. AGSO of Canberra has coordinated the
integration of the national products in the regional map, including in
the later phase Indonesia and Philippines.
NORTHERN ANDES (PILOTO)
Five Andean countries (Bolivia to Venezuela)
and four European countries cooperated in the PILOTO program ("Test area
for earthquake monitoring and seismic hazard assessment"), launched under
GSHAP and sponsored by the European Union (Ct.94-0103) to produce in 1997
a unified SHA for the Andean region. Activities included the integration
of national earthquake catalogues and source zonings in common regional
databases, a coordinating meeting in occasion of the Regional Seismological
Assembly in Brasilia (8/94), regional SHA workshops held in Bogota (10/95,
1/97) and Quito (6/97) and a joint ILP/PILOTO "Training course in paleoseismology"
held in Venezuela (2/97).
IBERO-MAGHREB
GSHAP has promoted the reactivation of
the former ESC program. Activities to produce a first generation of SHA
for the Ibero-Maghreb area by 1997 have been coordinated by the CSIC of
Barcelona. Workshops were held in Granada (5/94), Rabat (12/95) and Barcelona
(12/96, 5/97), with partial support from IGCP/SESAME, the first in occasion
of the UNESCO/USGS "6th Int. Forum on Seismic Zonation: First Ibero-Maghreb
Region Conference". In 1996 the CNCPRST of Rabat, the GSHAP Regional Centre,
became the "Centre Euro-Mediterraneen d’Evaluation et de Prevention du
Risque Sismique or Seismic Hazard Assessment (CEPRIS)" under the Open Partial
Agreement on Natural Disasters of the European Council, with the mandate
of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western Mediterranean
areas.
ADRIA
This project includes all countries bordering
on the Adriatic Sea, from the Alps to Greece, coordinated by OGS of Trieste.
A new geodynamic model for the whole Central Mediterranean the seismic
zoning map, the combined earthquake catalogue and the new hazard maps,
in spectral ground motion parameters, have been compiled during a series
of regional workshops (Trieste 7/94, Athens 9/95, Ljubliana 10/95, Pisa,
2/98) and presented in Tel Aviv at the ESC (8/98).
EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN
GSHAP, the UNESCO/IUGS IGCP n.382 (SESAME:
Seismotectonics and seismic hazard assessment in the Mediterranean), the
European Seismological Commission (IASPEI) and the UNESCO/USGS RELEMR are
coordinating their activities, to produce a unified hazard mapping for
the area, including Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Egypt,
Palestine, Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula. In 1996 SESAME organized
its first "Training workshop on seismotectonics and seismic hazard analysis
in the Eastern Mediterranean countries" in Cairo (12/96); a second workshop
was held again in Cairo (12/97) focussing on the compilation of the active
fault map and regional SHA. RELEMR includes hazard mapping from Turkey
to the Red Sea; following initial planning meetings in Cairo (10/93) and
Paris (5/95), technical meetings and regional coordination meeting were
held jointly with SESAME in Cyprus (12/96, 12/97), Thessalonicki (8/97),
Amman (5/98) and Tel Aviv (8/98) to produce the first regional PGA map,
under the coordination of ETH Zurich. The PGA maps for Turkey, Greece and
Iran have been independently produced under national programs. In the last
workshop organized by RELEMR in Istanbul (10/98), a new strategy to build
common earthquake catalogue, source zones and hazard has now been established
for the whole region.
CAUCAS
The Test Area for SHA in the Caucasus
is coordinated by GSHAP with IASPEI and INTAS support (Ct.94-1644), joining
seismological institutions from the Caucasian republics, Russia, Turkey
and Iran. Starting in 1994, multinational working groups produced an integrated
regional earthquake catalogue (historical and instrumental), a new model
of seismic lineaments and seismic zoning, and comparative SHA following
probabilistic, deterministic, mixed probabilistic-deterministic and areal
probabilistic methodologies. Workshops were held in Tehran (1/93), Moscow
(9/93), Ashgabad (10/94), Tehran (5/95), Yerevan (7/96) and Tbilisi (7/97).
A comprehensive report has been distributed in 1997, summarizing the results.
The NATO-ARW "Historical and prehistorical earthquakes in the Caucasus"
(Ct.95-1521) was held in Armenia (7/96) and produced a comprehensive proceedings
volume published by Kluwer.
AFRICAN RIFT
The "Eastern and Southern Africa Regional
Seismological Working Group", with support from the Swedish Government,
Bergen University, the BGS, IASPEI and GSHAP, held periodic workshops to
compile the regional earthquake catalogue and SHA for the African Rift
area. Workshops were held in Entebbe (8/94), Addis Abeba (1/95), Bulawayo
(2/96) and Bergen (6/97), and the regional PGA map is now available; for
the first time eight of the nine participating countries have a national
seismic hazard map, including site-specific hazard estimates for the capital
cities along the Rift. A second initiative was directed by the Regional
Centre at the University of Nairobi, who organized a regional planning
meeting in Nairobi (11/93) and hosted the UNESCO/GFZ "International Training
Course in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment" (Nairobi, 9/97).
CHINA-INDIA-NEPAL-MYANMAR-BANGLA DASH
The GSHAP test area has been established
in the border region of China, India, Nepal, Myanmar and Bangla-Dash, under
the direction of the SSB of Beijing, the GSHAP Regional Centre and the
NGRI of Hyderabad; it is the first time that this type of regional framework
is effectively operating in the region. Activities initiated with a planning
meeting in Beijing (10/93), followed by the preliminary compilation of
regional catalogues and by technical workshops in Beijing (10/94) and Hyderabad
(3/96), to produce the final earthquake catalogue, seismic source zoning
and SHA presented at the ASC Assembly in Tangshan (8/96) and the 30th International
Geological Congress in Beijing (8/96).
CIRCUM-PANNONIAN (EU-QSEZ-CIPAR CT.94-0238)
The "Quantitative seismic zoning of the
Circum-Pannonian region" project includes the countries of the Circum-Pannonian
basin (Hungary, Romania, Slovania, Croatia, Albania) in addition to Italy
and UK. While the aim of this independent project was to produce a deterministic
hazard assessment for the region, a specific source zoning (1997) and probabilistic
hazard assessment (1998) were produced by BGS, Edinbourgh, for comparison
with the deterministic results and for inclusion in SESAME and GSHAP.
MEDITERRANEAN (IGCP n.382 SESAME)
The UNESCO/IUGS International Geological
Correlation Program n.382 "Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment
in the Mediterranean" (SESAME) has the goal of coordinating and integrating
the results obtained in the Mediterranean and Middle East regions by the
different project active in the areas: ADRIA, Ibero-Maghreb, Circum-Pannonian,
Eastern Mediterranean, Central-Northern Europe, African Rift, CAUCAS. SESAME
is implemented in the 1996-2000 period and has so far co-sponsored many
of the events in the different regional programs, culminating in the first
compilation of regional hazard presented at the 1998 ESC assembly (Tel
Aviv, 8/98). A separate program "A basic european earthquake catalogue
and database for the evaluation of long-term seismicity and seismic hazard"
(BEECD, EU Ct. 94-0479), coordinated by IRRS of Milan, has produced a regional
seismic catalogue covering the European part of the Mediterranean, in coordination
with the GSHAP activities listed above.
The GSHAP global map of seismic hazard
(PGA) is being completed in the winter 1999, integrating the results obtained
in the regional areas. Four of the GSHAP centres acted as focal points
to collect and merge the existing results in four large continental areas:
USGS, Colorado, for the Americas; GFZ, Potsdam, for Europe-Mediterranean-Africa-Middle
East; SSB, Beijing, for Central-Eastern Asia; AGSO, Canberra, for Australia-Western
Pacific margin. Global coordination was provided by ETH, Zurich. The final
phase of global reunification is now under way to complete the global map
for inclusion in the GSHAP volume and for global distribution. An editorial
commettee has prepared technical specifications for the final compilation
of the regional reports, the databases and the hazard maps. All work is
to be completed in the spring 1999.
A key factor in the GSHAP implementation
have been the technical workshops, organized in occasion of major international
assemblies and more often as independent events to bring together national
experts from all the disciplines involved in the assessment of seismic
hazard. These meetings were held at project or inter-project scale, with
up to a hundred and more participants. The following list reviews the sequence
of workshops, as detailed in the regional activities above.
| Rome, 6/92 | Tehran, 1/93 | Potsdam, 7/93 | Moscow, 9/93 |
| Beijing, 10/93 | Ixtapa, 4/94 | Granada, 5/94 | Trieste, 7/94 |
| Brasilia, 8/94 | Entebbe, 8/94 | Nairobi, 9/94 | Ashgabad, 10/94 |
| Beijing, 10/94 | De Bilt, 12/94 | Addis Abeba, 1/95 | Wellington, 1/95 |
| Tehran, 5/95 | Boulder, 7/95 | Erice, 8/95 | Athens, 9/95 |
| Bogota, 10/95 | Ljubliana, 10/95 | Melbourne, 11/95 | Rabat, 12/95 |
| Bulawayo, 2/96 | Hyderabad, 3/96 | Yerevan, 7/96 | Tangshan, 8/96 |
| Reykjavik, 9/96 | Cairo, 12/96 | Cyprus, 12/96 | Barcelona, 12/96 |
| Bogota, 1/97 | Venezuela, 2/97 | Barcelona,5/97 | Quito, 6/97 |
| Bergen, 6/97 | Tbilisi, 7/97 | Thessalonicki,8/97 | Cyprus, 10/97 |
| Cairo, 12/97 | Pisa, 2/98 | Amman, 5/98 | Golden, 7/98 |
| Tel Aviv, 8/98 | Istanbul, 10/98 | Hyderabad, 12/98 |
Another key element of the GSHAP implementation
is the pursue of activities and tasks devoted to the improvement of the
global practice of seismic hazard assessment.
Uniform instrumental global seismic catalogue
With the aim of extending the global
instrumental earthquake catalogue and database, now available since 1964
(ISC, NEIC), to cover the whole century, work is in progress at USGS and
the University of Colorado, on the digital scanning and processing of the
ISS and BCIS Bulletins; the relocation of a uniform global catalogue is
under way, using modern travel-times and location procedures used at NEIC.
Software for seismic hazard assessment
The goal of across-boundary integration
of seismic hazard databases and products was identified in the Rome 1992
planning meeting as crucial to the global implementation of GSHAP. The
"seismotectonic probabilistic approach" was selected as a standard for
global SHA application, to allow the comparison and integration of regional
maps and zonations. To implement this strategy, an integrated software
package dealing with all the steps of seismotectonic hazard computation,
FRISK88M, has been made available free of charge by Risk Engineering for
GSHAP applications to all test areas and regional centres.
Multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment
The global evaluation of seismic hazard
requires the characterization of the earthquake cycle over recurrence times
spanning from 10-102 years in active tectonic areas to 103-105
years in areas of slow crustal deformation. A primary goal of GSHAP has
been the implementation of a multisciplinary approach to seismic hazard
assessment introducing the results from geological disciplines dealing
with active faulting (neotectonics, paleoseismology, geomorphology, geodesy)
to complement the historical and instrumental records of earthquakes. This
goal has been pursued with several initiatives:
-
The adoption of the seismotectonic probabilistic
approach for global application reflects the aim to incorporate the geological
input to characterize the earthquake recurrence in space and time.
-
The workshop on "Active Faulting Studies
for Seismic Hazard Assessment", held in Erice (Sicily, 9/95), brought together
specialists in active faulting studies with seismologists and engineers
responsible for developing assessment methodologies and for leading major
national seismic hazard programs from all continents, to explore new trends
in active faulting studies and verify the extent to which the geological
input is being used in seismic hazard assessment practice. The workshop
produced a document of recommendations, which is being circulated worldwide.
-
GSHAP and the ILP Projects "II-2: Maps
of major active faults" and "II-3: Earthquakes of the late Holocene" have
joint activities under way and scheduled for 1995-97, including the 1996
NATO/ARW "Historical and pre-historical earthquakes in the Caucasus" and
the "training course in paleoseismology and active faulting in South America"
in 1997.
-
Scientific articles illustrating strategies
and examples in multidisciplinary seismic hazard assessment have been published
on proceedings volumes and scientific journals; among these, the GSHAP
Volume (Annali di Geofisica, vol. 36-3, 1993) includes seminal papers on
the integration of the geological input in seismic hazard assessment.
The implementation of GSHAP relied on
the cooperation with several international scientific agencies, commissions
and programs.
International Lithosphere Program
(ILP)
ILP has launched GSHAP (ILP Project
II-0) and established its worldwide operation. The integration between
GSHAP and the ILP Projects "II-2: Maps of major active faults" and "II-3:
Earthquakes of the late Holocene" was planned since the beginning and joint
activities were conducted, as listed above.
Internat. Association of Seismology
and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI)
Seismic hazard assessment is a multidisciplinary
effort geared at integrating the input from different geophysical and geological
disciplines represented in IUGG and IUGS; however, the traditional affiliation
of seismic hazard is within IASPEI and here GSHAP has found the largest
support. Several IASPEI commissions and working groups had an active role
in the GSHAP implementation: the "Commission on Earthquake Prediction and
Hazard" run jointly with GSHAP the Caucasus test area, the "Committee for
Developing Countries" and the "Commission for the IDNDR" have been kept
closely informed and involved in GSHAP activities, the "Working Group on
Earthquake Risk and Losses" is active within the RELEMR program and held
joined activities in Moscow (10/93), the "European Seismological Commission"
is effectively coordinating GSHAP activities in the larger European-Mediterranean
area, allocating special sessions to GSHAP within its annual assemblies,
and the newly formed "Asian Seismological Commissions" has done the same
in the Asian region.
UNESCO
UNESCO is very active in the field
of seismic risk assessment and mitigation and has provided overall support
to GSHAP activities. In particular, GSHAP worked in close coordination
with three UNESCO programs:
-
the UNESCO/USGS program "Reduction of
Earthquake Risk in the Eastern Mediterranean Region" is integrated in the
framework of regional test areas activated by GSHAP in the larger Mediterranean
area;
-
the UNESCO/IUGS International Geological
Correlation Program n.382 "Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment
of the Mediterranean" is one of GSHAP test areas;
-
GSHAP participated in the UNESCO/GFZ "International
Training Courses in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment "in 1995 in
Costarica and in 1997 in Kenya.
International Council of Scientific
Unions (ICSU)
GSHAP is one of the programs selected
by the ICSU Committee for IDNDR as scientific contribution to the IDNDR.
ICSU has been very supportive of GSHAP since its beginning, providing guidance,
encouragement and managing funds which have helped to promote GSHAP activities
in several key areas.
International Association of Earthquake
Engineers (IAEE)
The need to close the bridge often
existing between the scientific and engineering communities working in
seismic hazard and risk assessment was recognized in the GSHAP planning
and the cooperation with the engineering community has been established.
The IAEE "World Seismic Safety Initiative" has recognized GSHAP and accepted
GSHAP observers at the WSSI Board of Directors (Vienna, 8/94) and at the
Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering (Melbourne, 11/95); representatives
of the engineering community sit on the GSHAP Steering Committee.
European Countil (EC)
The EC Open Partial Agreement on Major
Disasters has named the CNCPRST of Rabat, one of the GSHAP Regional Centres,
as the "centre EuroMediterraneen d’Evaluation et de Prevention du Risque
Sismique or Seismic Hazard Assessment "(CEPRIS), with the mandate of coordinating
activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western Mediterranean areas.
World Meteorological Organization
(WMO)
The WMO Hydrology and Water Resources
Department is implementing its "System for Technology Exchange for Natural
Disasters" (STEND), an information exchange programme aimed at increasing
awareness of available technology through the dissemination of knowledge
about the different methodologies used in fields related to natural hazards.
The GSHAP Regional Centres have been included in the list of STEND focal
points for knowledge transfer and a more close cooperation ie expected
in the future, pending the availbility of operation funds in many of the
Regional Centres.
Earthquake and Megacities Initiative
(EMI)
The final years of the Decade are shifting
the emphasis on the protection of megacities, moving from hazard assessment
to engineering applications and risk mitigation strategies. Several UN
sponsored initiatives are under way, including the ILP’s "Earthquake and
Megacities Initiative". Under request by ICSU and the IDNDR, GSHAP computed
in several regions site-specific hazards as input for megacities programs.
The GSHAP implementation and the activities
of the Regional Centres and test areas required significant funding. As
the support directly provided by the UN/IDNDR has been minimal, GSHAP has
secured support from different sources:
-
Funds provided or raised by the Regional Centres
have been instrumental to organize workshops and conduct activities at
the Regional Centres (i.e. at GFZ, SSB, IIEES, JIPE, USGS).
-
Support was provided by ING, Roma, the GSHAP
Coordinating Centre in the 1992-97 period, to organize general GSHAP events
such as the 1992 Technical Planning meeting in Rome, the publication of
the GSHAP Technical Volume, the 1995 Workshop on Active Faulting Studies
for Seismic Hazard Assessment. In the final phase (1997-99) the coordination
support has been provided by ETH, Zurich.
-
Projects submitted to international funding
agencies for scientific research and cooperation provided significant support
for the implementation of the test areas in South America (CEC Ct.94-0103
PILOTO), the Caucasus (INTAS Ct.94-1644 CAUCAS; NATO-ARW Historical and
prehistorical earthquakes in the Caucasus), the Mediterranean (EC/OPA CEPRIS;
IGCP n.382 SESAME).
-
Yearly support has been provided throughout
the project by ILP, ICSU and IASPEI; occasional contributions have been
made by UNESCO and Kinemetrics.
-
Local and national organizations all over
the world have allowed and often supported the participation of individual
scientists in GSHAP activities.
-
Several international projects and multi-national
areas in seismic hazard assessment were supported by other agencies in
different areas of the world (e.g. RELEMR, EANHM, QSEZ-CIPAR, BEECD, PAIGH),
in coordination with GSHAP.
The GSHAP implementation and activities were
supervised by a Steering Committee listing fifteen renown experts in seismic
hazard assessment and earthquake engineering from all the world. The role
of many of the Steering Committee members has been instrumental in setting
guidelines, conducting regional activities, raising support and participating
in the global programs of GSHAP.
GSHAP on the Web
Regional reports, GSHAP yearly reports,
summaries and maps of seismicity, source zones and seismic hazard are available
freely on the GSHAP homepage on http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.
The page is not final yet, as a few regional products are still missing
and the global map will be available in the spring 1999.
GSHAP summary volume and CD-ROM
The regional reports, detailing the
compilation of the databases and of the hazard results in the GSHAP test-areas
and regions, are being collected in a special volume, prepared following
common guidelines, including also a CD-ROM with the earthquake databases,
the seismic source zones and the regional hazard maps. The volume and CD-ROM
are scheduled for release in spring 1999, published as a Special Issue
of Annali di Geofisica.
Publications
The dissemination and publication
of GSHAP ideas and results started with the GSHAP Volume (Annali di Geofisica,
vol. 36, 3-4, 1993; 2000 copies). GSHAP activities and results have been
presented at the major international and regional assemblies and meetings.
Research papers and articles describing the program’s approach and regional
activities have appeared on scientific journals, special volumes and regional
bulletins. Sessions dedicated to GSHAP have been hosted by the assemblies
of IASPEI, ESC, ASC and SSA and by other international meetings. GSHAP
workshops have been organized in all test areas, as listed above.
Reports
Progress reports and summaries prepared
by the Coordinating Centre have been distributed worldwide (7/92, 11/92,
12/93, 2/94, 9/94, 6/95, 4/96, 1/97, 1/98). Periodic summaries have appeared
on bulletins and newsletter of IASPEI, ICSU, ILP, AGU.
The GSHAP has fulfilled in large part
the goals and design principles set in 1992. In addition to the regional
and global results and products listed above, the following should be noted:
-
Also because of GSHAP, the global standards
in seismic hazard assessment have markedly improved in the last few years,
with specific regards to the implementation of multi-disciplinary information,
the refinement of the databases, the standardization of the knowledge of
earthquake hazards.
-
National hazard maps have improved in
developed countries involved in across-border cooperation (i.e. in Europe)
as well as in Third-World countries with no previous experience in SHA
(i.e the African Rift).
-
GSHAP was very aggressive in promoting
multi-national cooperation in all continents, with particular emphasis
in critical border areas. Some examples: S. Africa worked together with
the African Rift framework in a regional scientific program; Russia, Turkey
and Iran cooperated together in the Caucasus; China and India cooperated
over many years in a sensitive border area; the Andean countries worked
together under a unified framework program.
-
GSHAP was successful in attracting significant
funds to regional SHA. Some examples: NATO financed a scientific meeting
in the Caucasus; the first EC-OPA Center was selected in Northern Africa;
INTAS and EU funded programs with a large emphasis on coordination.
The GSHAP suffered also setbacks and right criticisms.
-
It failed to establish efficient large-scale
regional programs in areas where significant external funding or local
energies were not available (i.e. large parts of the African continent),
in areas where the scientific community and the national interests are
too strong (N. America), in areas where the political boundaries are still
prevailing (Middle East).
-
The balance between science and application
was difficult to achieve, with criticisms of having chosen low scientific
standards (from ICSU) clashing against criticisms of not thinking enough
about applications (from the UN/IDNDR)
-
GSHAP often interfered with national agendas
and priorities, entering in competition with national programs for funding,
hazard standards and agendas; in the end these clashes mostly resulted
in improved hazard assessment, but they also created frictions.
-
While GSHAP focussed on the establishment
on regional working frameworks which were very active during the program
implementation, the long term future of this cooperation is often doubtful,
in absence of appropriate international frameworks, funding and guidelines.
-
Disciplinary boundaries are reduced but
remain strong.
-
The GSHAP, like other demonstration programs,
suffered also from overall limitations in the implementation of the UN/IDNDR
program: changing priorities, no inter-project coordination, no plans for
follow-up projects implementing the results of the demonstration programs
in risk mitigation strategies, lack of significant start-up and operational
funding. All these elements have resulted in the GSHAP to operate in a
rather independent fashion within the seismological and seismic hazard
assessment community. A mid-program review conducted by the IDNDR Scientific
and Technical Committee helped in focussing the GSHAP results and applications.
GSHAP was developed with the support of
international projects and organizations, of national scientific agencies
and of research institutions, but especially with the efforts of hundreds
of individual scientists (more than 400) willing to devote their time,
knowledge and strength to this international endeavour.
Report released on February 10, 1999,
by D. Giardini, GSHAP Coordinator
The compilation of the GSHAP map of
global seismic hazard, D. Giardini, D. Mayer-Rosa, K. McCue, R. McGuire,
K. Shedlock & P. Zhang
Seismic Hazard Map of the Western Hemisphere,
K. M. Shedlock & J. G. Tanner
The Seismic Hazard Map of the European-Mediterranean-African
region, G. Grünthal, D. Giardini, D. Mayer-Rosa & S. Sellami
Seismic Hazard Map of North and Central
America and the Caribbean (GSHAP Region 1), K. M. Shedlock
Seismic Hazard of South America - CERESIS
(GSHAP Region 2), A. Giesecke
Seismic Hazard Assessment of Northern
Europe (GSHAP Region 3), G. Grünthal
Seismic Hazard Assessment of Iran (GSHAP
Region 6), B. Tavakoli & M. Ghafory- Ashtiany
Seismic Hazard of Northern Eurasia
(GSHAP Region 7), V.I. Ulomov
Seismic Hazard of Eastern Asia (GSHAP
Region 8), P. Zhang & K. Shedlock
Seismic Hazard Mapping of Australian,
the Southwest Pacific and Southern Asia (GSHAP Region 10), K. McCue
Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Northern
Andean region, C. Dimaté, L. Drake, A. Fuenzalida, D. Giardini,
G. Gruenthal, L. Ocola, H. Rendon & H. Yepes
Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Ibero-Maghreb
Region, M.-J. Jiménez, M. García-Fernández, M. Chadi,
D. El Foul, A. Izquierdo, J.-M. Martínez-Solares, C. Sousa-Oliveira
& B.-A. Tadili
Seismic Hazard Assessment in Eastern
and Southern Africa, V. Midzi, D. J. Hlatywayo, L. S. Chapola, F. Kebede,
K. Atakan, D. K. Lombe, G. Turyomuru-gyendo & F. A. Tugume
GSHAP seismic hazard assessment for
the Adria region, D. Slejko, R. Camassi, I. Cecic, D. Herak, M. Herak,
S. Kociu, V. Kouskouna, J. Lapajne, K. Makropoulos, C. Meletti, B. Muco,
C. Papaioannou, L. Peruzza, A. Rebez, P. Scandone, E. Sulstarova, N. Voulgaris,
M. Zivcic & P. Zupancic
Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Circum-Pannonian
basin (EU-CIPAR-QSEZ), R. Musson
Seismic Hazard Assessment of Turkey
and the Aegean, M. Erdik
Seismic Hazard Map of the Near East
(RELEMR/SESAME/ESC), A-Q. Amrat, E. Ibrahim, D. Mayer-Rosa, G. Papakyriacou,
S. Riad, S. Sellami, A. Shapira, W. Hays, M. Al Haddad & M. El Khoubbi
Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Caucasus
test area, S. Balassanian, D. Giardini, V. Ulomov, T. Ashirov, T. Chelidze,
M. Erdik, A. Gassanov, M. Ghafory-Ashtiany, N. Kondorskaya, G. Molchan,
B. Pustovitenko & V. Trifonov
Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard
Assessment of the Mediterranean Region (SESAME, ICTP n.382), D. Giardini,
M. Garcia-Fernandez, K. Macropulos, S. Riad, S. Sellami
The India-China-Tibet GSHAP Test Area,
H. Gupta & P. Zhang
| |
|---|
| Coordination |
|---|
| Coordinator | D. Giardini | ETH | Zurich, CH | giardini@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch |
| Chair, SteerCom | H. Gupta | NGRI | Hyderabad, India | director@csngri.ren.nic.in |
| |
|---|
| Test areas and regional centres |
|---|
| South America | A. Giesecke | CERESIS | Lima, Peru | giescere@inictel.gob.pe |
| Andes | C. Dimaté | INGEOMINAS | Bogotà, Colombia | cdimate@esmeralda.ingeomin.gov.co |
| North America | K. Shedlock | USGS | Golden, USA | shedlock@gldvxa.cr.usgs.gov |
| C-N Europe | G. Grunthal | GFZ | Potsdam, DE | ggrue@gfz-potsdam.de |
| Ibero-Maghreb | M. Garcia | CSIC | Barcelona, Spain | mgarcia@ija.csic.es |
| B. Iben Brahim | CNCPRST | Rabat, Morocco | lag@cnr.ac.ma |
| ADRIA | D. Slejko | OGS | Trieste, Italy | dslejko@ogs.trieste.it |
| C. Pannonian | R. Musson | BGS | Edimburg, UK | rmwm@wpo.nerc.ac.uk |
| Caucasus | S. Balassanian | NSSP | Yerevan, Armenia | presidnt@nssp.r.am |
| N. Eurasia | V. Ulomov | IPE | Moscow, Russia | ulomov@ifz.ru |
| Iran | M. G. Ashtiany | IIEES | Tehran, Iran | ashtiany@dena.iiees.ac.ir |
| Africa Rift | K. Atakan | Bergen Univ. | Norway | kuvvet@ifjf.uib.no |
| I. Nyambok | Nairobi Univ. | Kenya | uonseism@arcc.or.ke |
| C-N Asia | P. Zhang | SSB | Beijing, China | peizhen@public3.bta.net.cn |
| Oceania | K. McCue | AGSO | Canberra, Australia | kmccue@agso.gov.au |
| |
|---|
| Global programs |
|---|
| Global Catalogue | E. Engdahl | USGS | Boulder, USA | engdahl@gldfs.cr.usgs.gov |
| Software | R. McGuire | Risk Eng. | Boulder, USA | mcguire@riskeng.com |
| D. Mayer-Rosa | ETH | Zurich, CH | dieter@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch |
| ADRIA | Adria plate GSHAP test area |
|---|
| AGSO | Australian Geological Survey Organization |
|---|
| AGU | American Geophysical Union |
|---|
| ARW | NATO Advanced Research Workshop |
|---|
| BEECD | CEC Ct. 94-0497: A basic european earthquake catalogue and database for the evaluation of long-term seismicity and seismic hazard |
|---|
| BGS | British Geological Service |
|---|
| CAUCAS | INTAS Ct. 94-1644: Test area for seismic hazard assessment in the Caucasus |
|---|
| CEPRIS EC/OPA | Centre EuroMediterraneen d’Evaluation et de Prevention di Risque Sismique |
|---|
| CERESIS | Centro Sismologico Regional para la America del Sur |
|---|
| CNCPRST | Centre National de Coordination et de Planification de la Recherche Scientifique et Technique, Rabat |
|---|
| DACH | GSHAP test area covering Germany, Austria and Switzerland |
|---|
| EANHM | Eastern Asia Natural Hazards Mapping project |
|---|
| EC/OPA | European Council - Open Partial Agreement on Major Disasters |
|---|
| ESARS-WG | Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Seismological Working Group |
|---|
| ESC | European Seismological Commission (IASPEI) |
|---|
| ETH | Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich |
|---|
| GFZ | Geo-Forshungs Zentrum, Potsdam |
|---|
| GSC | Geological Service of Canada |
|---|
| GSJ | Geological Service of Japan |
|---|
| IAEE | International Association of Earthquake Engineering |
|---|
| IASPEI | International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth Interior |
|---|
| ICSU | International Council of Scientific Unions |
|---|
| IDNDR | UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction |
|---|
| IGC | International Geological Congress |
|---|
| IGCP | International Geological Correlation Program |
|---|
| IIEES | International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology |
|---|
| ILP | International Lithosphere Program |
|---|
| ING | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Rome |
|---|
| IRRS | Istituto per la Ricerca sul Rischio Sismico, Milan |
|---|
| ISC | Internation Seismological Centre |
|---|
| IUGG | International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics |
|---|
| IUGS | International Union of Geological Sciensces |
|---|
| JIPE | Joint Institutes of Physics of the Earth, Moscow |
|---|
| NEIC | US National Earthquake Information Centre |
|---|
| NGRI | National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad |
|---|
| NSF | US National Science Foundation |
|---|
| OGS | Osservatorio Geofisico Sperimentale, Trieste |
|---|
| PAIGH | Pan-American Institute of Geography and History |
|---|
| PGA | Peak Ground Acceleration |
|---|
| PILOTO | CEC Ct. 94-0103: Pilot project for regional earthquake monitoring and seismic hazard assessment (EuMe-Andean regions) |
|---|
| RADIUS | Risk Assessmentand Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters project |
|---|
| RELEMR | Reduction of Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region project |
|---|
| SESAME | UNESCO/IGCP 382 Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assess. of the Mediterranean |
|---|
| SHA | Seismic Hazard Assessment |
|---|
| SSA | Seismological Society of America |
|---|
| SSB | State Seismological Bureau, Beijing |
|---|
| STEND | WMO System for Technology Exchange for Natural Disasters |
|---|
| UNAM | Universitad National Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City |
|---|
| UNESCO | UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization |
|---|
| USGS | United States Geological Survey |
|---|
| WMO | World Meteorological Organization |
|---|
| WSSI | World Seismic Safety Initiative |
|---|
GSHAP HISTORY