ANNUAL REPORT 1996-97

Summary

Aim of the SESAME project (Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Mediterranean Basin) is to establish a unified strategy and a joint framework for the coordination and correlation of activities leading toward a common seismotectonic zonation and seismic hazard assessment in the Mediterranean area. The project will improve the integration of the geological input in seismic hazard assessment and apply a probabilistic seismotectonic approach throughout the Mediterranean, incorporating geological evidence (prehistoric record of paleoseismic activity, geomorphology, rates of crustal deformation from land and space geodesy, geodynamic modelling) to supplement the historical record of seismicity and build a statistical model of seismogenic sources to reproduce the historical record of seismicity (location in space and time, frequency-size distribution).

The SESAME strategy is the integration and coordination of the regional programs operating in the Mediterranean. In recent years a number of programs and test-areas for multi-national seismic hazard assessment have been active in different areas of the Mediterranean area: Ibero-Maghreb, Central-Northern Europe, Balcans, ADRIA, RELEMR, CAUCAS (Figure 1). In coordination with the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (ILP, ICSU, UN/IDNDR) and with the European Seismological Commission, SESAME has set up a schedule for the integration of the regional results into a homogeneous hazard mapping for the whole Mediterranean basin, according to the following schedule and dates:

Phase I

1996-1997 complete the regional mapping in the different test-areas

1997 present the regional results at the 29th IASPEI Ass. (Thessalonicki, 8/97)

Phase II

1997-1998 merge the regional results into a preliminary SHA Mediterranean map

1998 present the Mediterranean map at the 26th ESC Assembly (Tel Aviv, 8/98)

Phase III

1998-2000 refine and integrate the Mediterranean earthquake catalogue, source zones,

attenuation laws; produce the final SHA map

2000 present the Mediterranean map and databases at the 27th ESC Assembly

The present report summarizes the existing cooperation in regional seismic hazard assessment in the Mediterranean area (Figure 1-5), the achievements of SESAME during its first two-year phase of implementation, the specific IGCP activities and meetings in 1996 and 1997, the plans for 1998 and further, the budget and the main publications.

Progress in regional SHA in the Mediterranean

CENTRAL-NORTHERN EUROPE

The GSHAP implementation in Central-Northern Europe is coordinated by the GFZ Regional Centre in Potsdam, including the whole territory north of 46°N. In 1996 the regional seismic catalogue has been completed with the addition of the database for Fennoscandia and of the SIRENE catalogue for France. Workshops were held in Potsdam (7/93) and in De Bilt (12/94). The first hazard zonation has been presented in 1996 at the ESC assembly (Reykjavik, 9/96) and the final SHA map (Figure 2) at the IASPEI assembly (Thessalonicki, 8/97). As part of Northern Europe, the unified hazard assessment for the German speaking countries (DACH: Germany-Austria-Switzerland) has been produced by national teams including seismologists and engineers, under the coordination of GFZ at Potsdam, as preparatory work for the implementation of the new european seismic building construction code (EC8). Regular meetings have been held in the last years towards the preparation of the final map produced in 1996.

IBERO-MAGHREB

The CSIC of Barcelona has coordinated the activities for the first generation of SHA for the area (Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia). Planning meetings were held in Granada (5/94) and Rabat (12/95); technical workshops were held in Barcelona (12/96, 5/97), with partial support from IGCP-SESAME, the first in conjuction with the UNESCO/USGS 6th International Forum on Seismic Zonation: First Ibero-Maghreb Region Conference. The preliminary regional SHA is now complete (Figure 3). In 1996, the CNCPRST of Rabat succedeed with GSHAP support in setting up the Centre Euro-Mediterraneen d'Evaluation et de Prevention du Risque Sismique (CEPRIS) in Rabat under the Open Partial Agreement on Natural Disasters of the European Council, with the mandate of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western Mediterranean areas; CEPRIS initiated its activities in 1997, with planning meetings in Rabat (3/97) and Thessalonicki (8/97).

ADRIA

This project includes all countries bordering on the Adriatic Sea (Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, Croazia, Albania, Greece) coordinated by OGS of Trieste. Seismic zoning maps and earthquake catalogue have been compiled during a series of regional workshops (Trieste 7/94, Athens 9/95, Ljubliana 10/95); preliminary hazard mapping (Figure 4) was presented at the ESC (Reykjavik, 9/96) and IASPEI (Thessalonicki, 8/97) assemblies and will be completed in the final ADRIA meeting to be held in Pisa at the end of 1997 (with partial IGCP support), for presentation at the 1998 ESC assembly (Tel Aviv, 8/98).

EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

The IGCP-SESAME and the UNESCO/USGS RELEMR are coordinating their activities toward a unified hazard mapping for the whole area (Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman). Several planning and review meetings have been held so far in the area. In 1996 SESAME organized a Training workshop on seismotectonics and seismic hazard analysis in the Eastern Mediterranean countries (Cairo, 12/96). RELEMR has a range of activities under implementation or planning, including hazard mapping from Turkey to the Red Sea; a workshop was held in Cyprus (12/96), dealing also with seismic hazard; a special RELEMR session was hosted at the IASPEI Assembly (Thessalonicki, 8/97); a second workshop is scheduled in Cyprus (10/97) and will include the review of the available SHA mapping for the area. A joint SESAME-RELEMR workshop is planned for late 1997/early 1998 RELEMR to produce the first preliminary regional map for the area (in PGA).

CAUCAS

The INTAS Test Area for Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Caucasus (CAUCAS; Ct.94-1644; 1995-97), with IASPEI endorsement, joined the main seismological institutions from Caucasian Republics (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ukraina, Turkmenistan), Russia, Turkey and Iran. Starting in 1993, multinational working groups produced an integrated regional earthquake catalogue (historical and instrumental), a new model of seismic lineaments and seismic zoning, and comparative SHA. Workshops were held in Tehran (1/93), Moscow (9/93), Ashgabad (10/94), Tehran (5/95), Yerevan (7/96) and Tbilisi (7/97). The final report, presented at the IASPEI Assembly (Thessalonicki, 8/97), compares hazard mapping obtained using six independent methodologies and codes (deterministic, seismotectonic probabilistic, areal probabilistic, mixed deterministic-probabilistic) starting from the same initial sources and catalogue. The NATO-ARW Historical and prehistorical earthquakes in the Caucasus was held in Armenia (Ct.95-1521, 7/96) and produced a comprehensive proceedings volume published by Kluwer.

NORTHERN EURASIA

The JIPE of Moscow is coordinating the seismic hazard mapping for the whole FSU territory. This five-year program, initiated before the FSU break-up and interrupted during the period of more intense political turmoil, has been restarted, leading to the compilation of the seismic catalogue and the SHA, using for the first time a probabilistic approach. Technical workshops are held routinely in Moscow. The whole area has been subdivided in five blocks, and the release of the final maps is expected at the end of 1997.

IGCP-382 Activities 1996

The first year of SESAME (1996) was dedicated to a series of exploratory meetings to establish a strategy and schedule for the program. These meetings were held often in occasion of planned scientific gatherings in the European-Mediterranean area, using IGCP funds as partial travelling support to ensure the participation of scientists from the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. Specific steps were taken in occasion of these meetings toward the implementation of SESAME, as listed below. Five such meetings were held in 1996 in different areas of the Mediterranean:

1. The planning meeting of the proposed initiative Medi-Sis (Seismic hazard, rapid scientific intervention and vulnerability in Mediterranean countries), sponsored by EU-DG12 in Rome (June 10-12), convened about 70 scientists from all Mediterranean countries to elaborate a document submitted for the preparation of the EU-MEDA framework to include seismic risk mitigation among the objectives of future cooperation under the UE banner. The SESAME Directors met on this occasion.
2. The NATO-ARW-951521 Historical and Prehistorical Earthquakes in the Caucasus, held in Yerevan (July 11-15) jointly with the INTAS Test area for seismic hazard assessment in the Caucasus (Ct. 94-1644), convened 45 scientists from the Middle East, FSU and Caucasus and international experts to evaluate and compare different approaches to seismic hazard assessment in one of the most hazardous areas of the world.
3. During the 25th ESC Assembly (Reykjavik, September 9-14), the ESC Sub-Commission on Engineering Seismology has been restructured and assigned specific tasks for the next 4-year term; the newly created Working Group on Seismic Hazard Assessment has the task to prepare a seismic hazard mapping of the European-Mediterranean area, adopting the SESAME phylosophy and specifications and extending it to the whole Europe.
4. The Training Workshop on Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Eastern Mediterranean countries was organized by IGCP in Cairo (December 7-9), to convene the experts in the Eastern Mediterranean countries and institutions to initiate a cooperative effort leading to the compilation of a homogeneous hazard map for the area (IGCP funding 3,000$).
5. the Sixth International Forum on Seismic Zonation: Ibero-Maghrebian Region Conference, jointly organized by USGS and CSIC in Barcelona (December 16-18) was devoted to the SHA in the Western Mediterranean(IGCP funding 3,900$).

IGCP-382 Activities 1997

Several technical workshops were organized in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean, within the regional framework described above. Two were specifically supported by SESAME.

1. A technical workshop was held in Barcelona to prepare the first Ibero-Maghreb SHA (May 10-13; IGCP funding 2,650$; participants from Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia).
2. ADRIA will complete its hazard map in Pisa (end November; IGCP funding 2,650$; participants from Italy, Switzerland, Slovenia, Croazia, Albania, Greece).

The SESAME key event of 1997 took place in occasion of the 29th IASPEI Assembly (Thessalonicky, August 14-28): in symposium W17 the different test areas active in the Mediterranean have presented their progress and regional maps, as reviewed before; one of the two IASPEI Associaton Lecture was devoted to the GSHAP implementation, including the Mediterranean and SESAME; a IGCP-382 review and planning symposium was held on August 25.

Following the strategy decided in Thessalonicki (8/97), the SESAME activities are proceeding along this schedule:

• The first SESAME product will be a preliminary SHA map of the Mediterranean-European area in PGA, to be assembled under the coordination of GFZ, Potsdam, merging the PGA results of individual regions and test areas. This regional map will be included in the global map to be edited by GSHAP; individual regions will submit to GFZ their maps by March 31, for integration by May 31 and final global mapping by August 1998. We expect the PGA maps for: Ibero-Maghreb, Central-Northern Europe, Adria, Balcans, Caucasus, Northern Eurasia, African Rift, Greece, Turkey, RELEMR.
• The regional reports, describing the regional product will be included in the GSHAP final volume, scheduled for publication in the fall 1998; reports, including a detailed description of databases and procedures, will be submitted by March 31, 1998, following common guidelines. The volume will include a CD-ROM with the regional databases and a large print of the global map.
• A short version of the regional reports, the regional maps and the SESAME reports will be on the web at www:http://www.seismo.ethz.ch.
• The final SESAME goal for 2000 will be a common earthquake catalogue, a common earthquake source zoning with defined seismic parameters, regionalized spectral attenuation laws, a common SH map in spectral parameters. While the whole framework will be difficult to achieve in homogeneous manner for all regions, some already have the required products, and are contributing them to GFZ for regional integration.

IGCP-382 Planned Activities 1998

The IGCP funding will be used to support the joint SESAME/RELEMR activities in the Middle East, to complete within the schedule outlined above the preliminary PGA map. A technical workshop is being planned for January 1998 in Jordan or Egypt (final decision to be taken during the Cyprus RELEMR meeting (10/97). The key event of the year will be in occasion of the 26th ESC Assembly (Tel Aviv, 8/98), where a SESAME-sponsored session titled "Seismic hazard assessment of the Mediterranean region" will review the regional products and the first Mediterranean hazard map. Following ESC; the second phase of the program will begin, to refine the databases and hazard maps.

Budget

The budget granted by IGCP to SESAME in 1996 (6,900$) was used as seed money to support the meetings in Cairo (3,000$) and Barcelona (3,900$); the 1997 budget (5,300$) was used to support the meeting in Barcelona (2,650$) and will be used for the meeting of ADRIA in Pisa (2,650$). Separate contracts have been signed with the UNESCO Cairo Office.

Report prepared on Novermber 15, 1997, by Domenico Giardini